Aster Ridge Research · Market analytics platform

Event Intelligence Desk

Structured signal intelligence on public equities, catalysts, narrative dislocations, and short-term trade conditions.

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Historical Board

Recent signal classifications

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Event date	Reference	Ticker	Event	Signal	Conf.	Horizon	Est. Range	Mat.	Disloc.	Src.	Status
2026-05-20Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27	ARR-2026-0627-NVDA-01	NVDA	Sell-the-News Exhaustion	SELL	72%	5.4–11.3D	-8.6% to -3.1%	80	78	80	CLOSED	View memo →
2026-05-06Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27	ARR-2026-0627-UBER-01	UBER	Subscription Leverage Inflection	BUY	74%	2.3–5.6D	+4.1% to +7.8%	71	80	78	CLOSED	View memo →
2026-02-03Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27	ARR-2026-0627-DIS-01	DIS	Streaming Profitability Inflection	BUY	68%	6.1–12.4D	+3.4% to +6.8%	80	78	79	CLOSED	View memo →
2026-02-03Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27	ARR-2026-0627-PFE-01	PFE	Obesity Pipeline De-Risking	BUY	70%	4.8–10.7D	+3.6% to +7.3%	72	75	76	CLOSED	View memo →
2025-11-25Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28	ARR-2026-0628-MRK-01	MRK	Hope-Rally Over-Extrapolation	SELL	66%	5.6–11.9D	-7.6% to -4.2%	74	75	82	CLOSED	View memo →
2025-07-17Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28	ARR-2026-0628-ABT-01	ABT	Beat-but-Light-Guide Overshoot	BUY	68%	6.3–12.2D	+3.9% to +6.8%	72	78	88	CLOSED	View memo →

NVDASELLCLOSED

Event date

2026-05-20Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27

Reference

ARR-2026-0627-NVDA-01

Confidence

72%

Horizon

5.4–11.3D

Est. Range

-8.6% to -3.1%

Event

Sell-the-News Exhaustion

Materiality

Dislocation

Src. Conf.

View memo →

UBERBUYCLOSED

Event date

2026-05-06Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27

Reference

ARR-2026-0627-UBER-01

Confidence

74%

Horizon

2.3–5.6D

Est. Range

+4.1% to +7.8%

Event

Subscription Leverage Inflection

Materiality

Dislocation

Src. Conf.

View memo →

DISBUYCLOSED

Event date

2026-02-03Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27

Reference

ARR-2026-0627-DIS-01

Confidence

68%

Horizon

6.1–12.4D

Est. Range

+3.4% to +6.8%

Event

Streaming Profitability Inflection

Materiality

Dislocation

Src. Conf.

View memo →

PFEBUYCLOSED

Event date

2026-02-03Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27

Reference

ARR-2026-0627-PFE-01

Confidence

70%

Horizon

4.8–10.7D

Est. Range

+3.6% to +7.3%

Event

Obesity Pipeline De-Risking

Materiality

Dislocation

Src. Conf.

View memo →

MRKSELLCLOSED

Event date

2025-11-25Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28

Reference

ARR-2026-0628-MRK-01

Confidence

66%

Horizon

5.6–11.9D

Est. Range

-7.6% to -4.2%

Event

Hope-Rally Over-Extrapolation

Materiality

Dislocation

Src. Conf.

View memo →

ABTBUYCLOSED

Event date

2025-07-17Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28

Reference

ARR-2026-0628-ABT-01

Confidence

68%

Horizon

6.3–12.2D

Est. Range

+3.9% to +6.8%

Event

Beat-but-Light-Guide Overshoot

Materiality

Dislocation

Src. Conf.

View memo →

Methodology Snapshot

Desk methodology proceeds in a fixed sequence, from catalyst extraction through to invalidation. Each memo separates headline sentiment from estimated business materiality.

Catalyst Extraction

Identify and isolate the event variables driving a ticker.

Source Reconciliation

Cross-check primary and secondary disclosures for consistency.

Materiality Scoring

Separate headline sentiment from estimated business impact.

Narrative Dislocation

Measure divergence between market narrative and reconciled evidence.

Signal Classification

Produce BUY / SELL / HOLD as the output of research logic.

Invalidation Framework

Define the conditions under which the signal is wrong.

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One plan

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Risk Framework

Outputs are informational research

Aster Ridge Research is an independent research publication of general and impersonal circulation. It is not investment advice and creates no advisory or fiduciary relationship. No performance is promised or implied. Conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional before acting.

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